International Energy Agency accused of consistently underestimating
potential of wind, solar and sea power while promoting oil, coal and
nuclear as 'irreplaceable' technologies

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jan/08/windpower-energy
Reproduced @
http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2009/01/09-2

The international body that advises most major governments across the
world on energy policy is obstructing a global switch to renewable
power because of its ties to the oil, gas and nuclear sectors, a group
of politicians and scientists claims today.

The experts, from the Energy Watch group, say the International Energy
Agency (IEA) publishes misleading data on renewables, and that it has
consistently underestimated the amount of electricity generated by
wind power in its advice to governments. They say the IEA shows
"ignorance and contempt" towards wind energy, while promoting oil,
coal and nuclear as "irreplaceable" technologies.

[Westmill Wind Farm Co-op in Watchfield near Swindon. With annual
returns of 10 percent coupled with low risk, wind farm cooperatives
are drawing growing numbers of investors in Britain -- good news for
Europe's hopes to lead the world in renewable energy (AFP/File/Adrian
Dennis)]Westmill Wind Farm Co-op in Watchfield near Swindon. With
annual returns of 10 percent coupled with low risk, wind farm
cooperatives are drawing growing numbers of investors in Britain --
good news for Europe's hopes to lead the world in renewable energy
(AFP/File/Adrian Dennis)
In a report to be published today, the Energy Watch experts say
wind-power capacity has rocketed since the early 90s and that if
current trends continue, wind and solar power-generation combined are
on track to match conventional generation by 2025.

Rudolf Rechsteiner, a member of the Swiss parliament who sits on its
energy and environment committee, and wrote today's report, said the
IEA suffered from "institutional blindness" on renewable energy. He
said: "They are delaying the change to a renewable world. They
continue touting nuclear and carbon-capture-and-storage, classical
central solutions, instead of a more neutral approach, which would
favour new solutions."

Today's report compares past predictions about the growth of wind
power, made by the IEA and others, with the capacity of wind turbines
actually installed.

It says: "By comparing historic forecasts on wind power with reality,
we find that all official forecasts were much too low."

In 1998, the IEA predicted that global wind electricity generation
would total 47.4GW by 2020. This figure was reached in December 2004,
the report says. In 2002, the IEA revised its estimate to 104GW wind
by 2020 – a capacity that had been exceeded by last summer.

In 2007, net additions of wind power across the world were more than
four-fold the average IEA estimate from its 1995-2004 predictions, the
report says. "The IEA numbers were neither empirically nor
theoretically based," it says.

The IEA's most recent forecast, in its 2008 World Energy Outlook,
predicts a fivefold increase in wind energy from 2006-2015, but then
assumes a rapid slowdown in deployment over the following decade. The
Energy Watch report calls this a "virtual stagnation" and says "no
arguments are given why the wind sector should suffer such a crisis by
2015 and after".

The report concludes: "The IEA outlook remains attached to oil, gas,
coal and nuclear, and renewables seem to have no chance to reverse
this trend. This organisation… has been deploying misleading data on
renewables for many years [and is still doing so]."

It adds: "One has to ask if the ignorance and contempt of IEA toward
wind power and renewables in general is done within a structure of
intent."

Mr Rechsteiner, who says he has investments in a handful of wind
turbines, said the IEA routinely drew senior staff from the
fossil-fuel industry. "The oil business is very skilful in keeping its
energy access exclusive," he says.

The IEA describes itself as an "intergovernmental organisation which
acts as energy policy advisor to 28 member countries in their effort
to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for their citizens".
It refused to comment on today's report. The Energy Watch group is run
by the Ludwig Bölkow Foundation in Germany.

John Hemming, the Liberal Democrat MP for Birmingham Yardley and a
member of the Energy Watch group, said: "The IEA has been complacent,
and part of the conventional wisdom that the solution is more oil and
gas. The British government relies on the IEA. In the land of the
blind, the one-eyed man is king — but the IEA's one eye has a cataract."

Today's report says the number of wind turbines installed over the
last decade has grown by 30% annually, and total windpower capacity is
more than 90GW – the equivalent of 90 conventional coal or nuclear
power stations. It adds that the boom in wind energy is "so far barely
touched by any sign of recession or financial crisis".

If current trends continue, the report claims wind capacity could
reach 7,500GW by 2025 – making half of all new power projects wind or
solar. Conventional power stations could be phased out completely by
2037, it claims.

Werner Zittel of the Energy Watch group, said: "It is time to realise
that the many detractors of wind energy have got it wrong. We have
seen more than 10 years of unprecedented growth in this sector… This
is not about morals or environment but the commercial reality that
wind, coupled with hydro, solar, biomass and geothermal energy is not
only a rapid and cost-effective alternative, but one that could
deliver all our energy requirements within the first half of the century."
© Guardian News and Media Limited 2009